November’s trade will kick off on the 6th, following the U.S. Presidential Election, which introduces added uncertainty and could impact the month’s market dynamics. During the first week of each month, referred to as “The Buy,” our team negotiates with steel mills to secure purchase orders for all ferrous grades. The remaining three weeks are then focused on fulfilling these orders. Various factors, including supply and demand, mill outages, export demand, weather conditions, and the availability of freight and cost, impact these negotiations. At BL Duke, we prioritize shipping point pricing and take full advantage of our ability to ship materials via truck, rail, and barge.
In November, the Chicago market is expected to settle sideways for the sixth consecutive month. Positive factors, such as tight scrap supply, offer support, though the outlook is tempered by weakening exports, falling hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, and multiple mill outages. Major US steelmakers Nucor and US Steel have increased HRC prices over the last week by $20-30/short ton, as they are working to establish a price floor. Despite efforts to raise HRC prices, the broader market trend remains largely unchanged.
U.S. bulk imports of pig iron, ferrous scrap, and direct reduced iron (DRI) surged this month to an estimated 785,000 tons—the highest level recorded since January, based on import manifest and vessel tracking data. Pig iron imports increased to 572,000 tons, alongside three bulk shipments of busheling and shredded scrap from Europe. DRI imports from Trinidad remained consistent at roughly 110,000 tons. Pig iron prices have been stable between $468-470 per ton CFR New Orleans since July, with minimal recent activity in the Brazilian market.
In October, Chicago and Detroit missed out on the $20/gt price increase seen in other regions across the country. With a sideways trend expected for November, it appears the Midwest will once again forgo any price gains.
While most major mill outages that began earlier will conclude by the end of October, North Star BlueScope and SDI have scheduled outages extending into November. These shutdowns, which started in August, have reduced scrap demand and pressured prices downward. Many other U.S. flat-rolled steelmakers are expected to re-enter the market as they complete maintenance.
